Over the years, the United States has been a major market for Chinese goods, with a massive portion of Chinese exports directed there. Meanwhile, China has been among the top purchasers of American products. Excluding its energy trade with China, Russia has played a relatively minor role in global trade flows.
But Trump’s decision to repeatedly impose enormous tariffs on Chinese goods could force China’s leadership to change its economic priorities and switch focus from the US to markets with fewer restrictions. Russia happens to be one of them.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean Russia will emerge as a major winner in the US-China trade war. Even Andrey Denisov, first deputy chair of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, argues that economic tensions between Washington and Beijing are not beneficial to Moscow.
Russia’s problem lies in its very export structure. In 2023, energy reportedly accounted for over 75 per cent of its exports to China. In the wake of Trump’s tariffs, crude oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels since 2021, which means that Moscow – even if Beijing significantly increases its purchase of Russian oil – is unlikely to reap any rewards.
